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March 31, 2004

MORE ON GAS PRICES
Why write new stuff when the old stuff still applies? Change the names of the politicians and this 1996 editorial on gas prices seems awfully current. But the fumes of technocracy do linger on in this line, from the WaPost story on Kerry's energy plan: "Kerry would temporarily suspend filling the reserve until 'oil prices return to normal levels,' it states." What will Kerry do about the prices of T-shirts? Computers? Shampoo? Diet Coke? (I buy a lot more Diet Coke than gasoline, and I want those loss-leader specials back.)
Posted by Virginia at 12:37 AM


GAS PRICES AREN'T AT "RECORD HIGHS"
Energy economist Lynne Kiesling is all over the media's favorite factoid. She also has good news about Monty Python's Life of Brian.

After a week in L.A., with a car for a few trips downtown, I'm starting to feel pretty friendly toward high gas prices. Having to pay more than $2 a gallon does wonders for the traffic (but then I walk most places I need to go).

Posted by Virginia at 12:25 AM


March 29, 2004

"THE KILLERS WERE NOT MISTAKEN IN THEIR TARGET"
Mario Vargas Llosa writes on Madrid in The Guardian
Madrid's modernity is not only in its buildings, new developments, infernal traffic jams, proliferating fast food outlets, the piebald invasion of tourists, or the alert ear that can, in the queues at the Prado or at night around the Plaza Mayor, hear all the languages in the world. It is in the mental cosmopolitanism of its people who, in their diversity, have grown emancipated from the stigma of a "municipal" Madrilenian identity (as Ruben Dario would say) and who, like the people of London, Paris or New York, have become citizens of the world. Thus, in an exhibition at the Galeria Moriarty, the Japanese photographer Atsuko Arai a couple of years ago could show how, without leaving the historic centre of town, the capital of Spain was a microcosm harbouring the landscapes and cultures of half the planet.

It has been this free spirit and this unblinkered mentality of an open city, hospitable and democratic, the emblem city of a remarkable transformation of Spain in the last quarter-century, that the fanatics sought to destroy, on the morning of March 11, when they placed in Atocha the bombs that have left more than 200 dead and 1,500 wounded - 12 nationalities, typically enough, being represented among the victims - in the most ferocious terrorist massacre suffered in Western Europe in modern history.

The killers were not mistaken in their target: today's Madrid represents precisely the negation of the radical inhumanity of the obtuse, exclusive tribal spirit of fundamentalism, religious or political, which hates mixture, diversity and tolerance and, above all, liberty. This is the first European battle in a savage war that began exactly two years ago with the destruction of the Twin Towers in New York, and whose inroads will probably fill with blood and horror a good part of this new century. It is a war to the death, of course, and owing to the present fantastic development of the technology of destruction and the fanatic, suicidal zeal that inspires the international movement of terror, it is perhaps a trial even more difficult than those represented by fascism and communism for the culture of liberty.

Vargas Llosa goes on to discuss the likely policies of the Zapatero government and their implications. Read the whole thing. (Thanks to Xavier Lewis, who posted a note about this article on the Dynamist listserve.)

Posted by Virginia at 03:21 PM


March 27, 2004

HAVE JAPANESE HOUSEWIVES ENDED THEIR STRIKE?
The NYT reports that Japanese household spending is up for the fourth month in a row. My friend Grant McCracken, a very smart cultural anthropologist, suggests that perhaps Japanese housewives are ending a de facto strike for better treatment. After spending three days at a Liberty Fund conference with Tyler Cowen and me, Grant recently resumed his Culture by Commotion blog.
Posted by Virginia at 12:04 PM


March 26, 2004

GAFFNEY, SC
Aside from stealing textile jobs from Queens, it's most famous for this I-85 landmark.
Posted by Virginia at 02:27 PM


TECHNOLOGY AND OUTSOURCING
Despite the occasional balancing point, this NYT feature hews to a standard narrative: technological progress plus geographical mobility equals cultural loss. In this case, the product is luxury fabric and old-fashioned looms in Queens are being replaced by computerized looms in some place called South Carolina, where workers make ridiculously low pay.
The Jacquard looms in the Scalamandre mill, though fully mechanized, made only 2 to 20 yards a day, depending on the complexity of the fabric, and still needed a lot of personal attention. Computerized looms, by comparison, will make 20 to 100 yards a day. The newer machines will each, on average, do the work of six iron-and-wood looms, minus the balletic grace....

According to Mrs. Bitter, it takes 6 to 10 years to train an expert weaver, who can earn up to $17 an hour, said Luis Ginorio, a representative of Unite, the union at the mill; the average worker, he said, might make $10 to $11 an hour. In South Carolina, he added, the average wage might be $7 or $8 an hour.

The NYT doesn't specify the city--Who could possibly care?--but chances are $7 an hour buys a much better lifestyle in South Carolina than $10 an hour buys in Queens. The article is worth reading, both for its information and its stereotypical narrative, and the website has a cool slide show that captures the romance of old industry.

For the other side of the story, here's the Greenville News account:

A high-end textile manufacturer is relocating much of its manufacturing operations to Gaffney, with plans to employ 90 people and invest $7.5 million.

That's good news for a county hit with an 8.8 percent unemployment rate in January. That translates to 2,420 people looking for jobs in a labor force of 27,490 people.

Statewide, the textile industry lost 4,100 jobs last year and 28,200 over the past five years.

Scalamandre, which sells its fabric for up to $2,000 a yard, plans to close its plant in Queens, N.Y., where it has been since 1929. It will phase out the New York operations by late spring, moving its weaving, dying and finishing operations to the Upstate.

Mark Bitter, chief executive officer and the grandson of the company founder, said the move will allow the company to triple its production and cut costs by 40 percent.

In South Carolina, "you have lower overhead, lower taxes, lower occupancy costs, lower labor costs, lower everything," he said.

But you have much more powerful newspapers (with better writers) in New York.

Posted by Virginia at 11:20 AM


REMEMBER WHEN?
Remember when putting troops on the ground in Afghanistan was a sure ticket to disaster, a military action hardly more conceivable than launching a nuclear attack? Remember the lessons of the Soviets and the British? Judging from this week's discussions, not many people do.
Posted by Virginia at 10:59 AM


March 25, 2004

NEOCON WEST
I'm in L.A. to attend NeoCon® West 2004, a gathering that has nothing to do with Irving Kristol or Leo Strauss.
Posted by Virginia at 11:20 AM


TEACHER QUALITY
Has the quality of public school teachers really fallen over the past generation and, if so, why? My latest NYT column looks at recent research that finds some surprising answers.

As a side note, one of the frustrations of writing a popular column on economics is that I tend to emphasize the results--what the research concludes--rather than the meticulous techniques and clever data collection that give work like this its credibility. One sign of a good empirical study is how careful the researchers are about testing and eliminating other possible explanations, including quirks in the data.

Posted by Virginia at 11:19 AM


March 23, 2004

PLAGIARIZING PAPERS ON POSTREL
I guess I've somehow arrived. An online term paper service is offering a pre-written essay on my Substance of Style speech at the Manhattan Institute.
Posted by Virginia at 09:11 PM


FUTURE NAMES
I'm watching Century City again--for research's sake. It's still flat, but I was struck by one nice little detail: yuppie parents named Bertha and Sidney. Now that's futuristic. There's only one problem: Those 2030 parents would be little kids today. Real 2030 yuppies will be named Daniel and Jessica. Check out the most popular baby names over time here, and my column on baby names as a form of fashion here.
Posted by Virginia at 08:46 PM


March 22, 2004

WOULD YOU REALLY RATHER BE A MINER?
In one of the best-written pieces I've seen on the subject, Ted Balaker of the Reason Public Policy Institute looks at the ever-looming threat to jobs:
But from the save-our-jobs perspective, the new protectionists have more to fear from machines. After all, those soulless slaves to efficiency have stolen more American jobs than any foreigner. Hollywood visionaries use films like The Terminator and The Matrix to warn us of the coming war against the machines. Well, the war is here. Actually, it's been here for a long time.

The printing press swallowed human scriveners and the photocopier and personal computer destroyed countless office jobs. Machines like the tractor have overrun agriculture so much that, during the last century, farmers' share of the American workforce has fallen from 40 percent to 3. Just weeks ago a Kentucky city mourned when a machine replaced its last human elevator operator, and even the recently resolved Southern California grocery strike may turn out to be another victory for machines. Here man and machine used to work together in peace— human checkers appreciated how scanners would remember thousands of prices for them. But now some stores have begun phasing in automated checkout machines, which means human checkers work alongside machines that may eventually take their jobs. An analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics data notes that—even without outsourcing—technology would have eliminated most of the jobs now going overseas. Sometimes it seems like our society is so mechanized that there's almost nothing left for us humans to do.

Of course, cursing machines misses the point because it tells only half of the story. Hyperventilating pundits can point to a specific sector or a narrow time frame and tell a tale of woe. And the quest for efficiency does kill jobs; but in the long run it creates more than it destroys....Taking a broader view reveals that—even with all the dips and churns—creation dwarfs destruction. At the end of World War II, there were about 138 million Americans. Today, 138 million Americans have jobs. Clearly, an efficient market is the best jobs program.

Still, can we connect the dots from efficiency gains to job growth? Some imagine that CEOs fire humans, hire machines, and then throw the extra cash on their money pile. This view may not be far off the mark in assuming ambition—perhaps even greed—motivates the CEO. However, the truly greedy won't simply stash the cash—they will reinvest it and dream of an even bigger payday. Since reinvestment spurs job growth, in order to accept the efficiency gains-job growth link you simply have to assume that corporate greed is alive and well. For most of us, this isn't a huge leap.

As the market evolves, we don't just exchange fewer jobs for more, we also trade up for better jobs. Since today's office mates squabble over a couple of clicks on the thermometer, it's a good thing few of them will have to find out how they'd survive in, say, a mineshaft. During the past 50 years we've lost over a quarter-million mining jobs, but we've gained 78 million service sector jobs. Today, 19 times as many Americans work in finance as in mining; 22 times more work in hospitality, and 54 times more work in heath and education.

It's often difficult to track job growth by a particular occupation, because many of today's jobs were created recently. Today's jobseeker has more choices than ever, which means that we are more likely get paid to do something we enjoy. Americans hold millions of jobs that did not exist a century ago. For example, our nation is home to 758,000 software engineers, 299,000 fitness workers and 128,000 aircraft mechanics. And many of the old-style jobs—far from being outsourced into oblivion—are more plentiful than ever. Our nation has 6.5 million teachers, 718,000 hairdressers, 281,000 chefs and 112,000 biologists. The chance for work to aid rather than hinder our quest for fulfillment is a truly historic development. How many miners stuck deep within the earth would rather have been video editors, web designers or car customizers?...

Protestors rarely wave angry signs at protectionist politicians who would jeopardize future jobs, but it's not fanciful to fight for jobs without knowing what they are. After all, when they were in third grade, today's 30-something web designers could not have dreamed of what they would end up doing. Likewise, today's third graders have no idea what's in store for them.

As a look at the good old days, it's hard to beat George Orwell's description of miners' lives in The Road to Wigan Pier.

Posted by Virginia at 11:42 PM


HOW BRITAIN GOT GOOD RESTAURANT FOOD
Looking for something else, I stumbled on this interesting report on the Bangladeshi restaurant trade in London:
The restaurant business in Tower Hamlets (and elsewhere), in contrast to the garment industry, has been very much a growth sector. The 'Indian' restaurant sector has traditionally been dominated by Bangladeshis and this is still very much evident. For example, of the 9,500 Indian and Bangladeshi restaurants and takeaways in the UK, employing over 72,000 personnel (more than the coal, steel and shipbuilding industries combined) and with an annual turnover of some £2.3 billion, approximately 85% are exclusively owned by Bangladeshis. A recent Labour Force Survey conducted in 1997 discovered that over 60% of male Bangladeshi employees and self-employed worked in the restaurant trade compared to 40% of Chinese but only 2% of Indian and 1% of white males. The origins of the contemporary pattern of ownership and employment can be traced to the nineteenth century when Sylheti seamen recruited by shipping companies gained a virtual monopoly of work as cooks and galley hands aboard British ships. When they came ashore, some of these men established tea houses and cafes near the waterfront. These businesses slowly grew in size and popularity and provided the basis for the Indian restaurant trade in the UK.

The massive growth in the 'Indian'/Bangladeshi catering sector (and, indeed, in other forms of cuisine) can be directly linked to the inexorable rise in multiple and differentiated forms of consumption after the Second World War. As the anthropologist Jack Goody notes in his seminal book 'Love and Food'

The old homogeneous 'canteen culture' in the UK had been highly socialised form of feeding, carried out collectively whether in the army, in the factory or in communal restaurants (called British restaurants) which showed the restrictions of the limited restaurant culture, with its supplies being rationed and its prices being controlled. That system was highly egalitarian and began to disappear, under pressure of economic growth, expanded supplies, consumer choice and – it has to be said – boredom with uniformity, with egalitarianism (1998:165).

In Tower Hamlets, the number of cafes (mainly Bangladeshi but a few Pakistani-owned) as well as an infrastructure of retail outlets expanded considerably in the 1960s, especially in the west of the borough, on Brick Lane and surrounding streets, to meet the demands of single Bangladeshi men living and working in Spitalfields. In the 1980s with the change in household structures and domestic routines triggered by the reunion of males with their wives, children and other dependants, some of these cafes were transformed into restaurants where the décor, cuisine, availability of alcohol and prices were specifically aimed at members of the white middle-class who worked and studied at the nearby London Hospital and university and polytechnic colleges.

In 1989, there were 8 cafes and restaurants in the Brick Lane and Hanbury Street area. A few more outlets were added to this number of the early 1990s but the main expansion has taken place in the last five years, so that today the area has 44 cafes and restaurants (with 18 businesses opening since 2000 and 6 or 7 more due to open in the near future and with an annual turnover of about £20 million) which means that Brick Lane is home to the largest number of Indian/Bangladeshi restaurants anywhere in the UK – the Rusholme area of Manchester, for example, has 42 while the Southall Broadway area has 27 comparable outlets.

Posted by Virginia at 11:33 PM


MORE ON DIY CHECKOUT
My friend Jeff Taylor, whom readers may know as the writer of Reason Express sends this link to an absolute category-killer of an article on the introduction of DIY checkout services in Albertson's. It's not the world's best writing, but if you're at all interested in how information technology is changing retailing, it's well-worth a read. Jeff points out this fun "creative destruction" fact:
Albertson's is installing 4,500 NCR self-checkout terminals in its 2,300 stores at an estimated cost of $16 million to $20 million. The machines normally cost about $20,000 each, but the company snagged the first 4,000 "for pennies on the dollar" from lessor GE Capital, which had picked them up from bankrupted retailer Kmart.

Of course, that very fact illustrates that technology alone can't save a struggling retailer.

Posted by Virginia at 11:11 PM


MORE ON NAMES
More evidence that there's no one best way to deal with the name game, from reader Stanley S. Forrester:
My wife choose to keep her last name after we were married. As an active duty service member (at the time) she had already gone through two name changes first for her first marriage and the ensuing divorce. No more of that.

We decided our child would carry both family names,
First Name: Timothy
Second Name: Frederich
Family Name: Gunechtel Forrester. (no hyphen)

Society assumes Timmy's last name is Forrester and treats his matrilineal name as a middle name. Had my son been a daughter she could both bow to societal expectation by dropping Forrester at marriage and still maintain the matrilineal name. If he chooses Timmy can do something similar with Gnuechtel or come up with something even more bizarre.

Posted by Virginia at 11:02 PM


GROCERY CHECKOUTS
A number of readers wrote in response to my post about hand-held scanners that let you ring up your groceries as you shop. The ones in my local Albertson's are an extension of the popular self-service checkout lines installed last year.

From reasder Janna Joseph:

I, also, look forward to more tech innovations to make in-store shopping more self-service. In my rather small town, our WalMart this year put in self-service lines. For a while few customers availed themselves of them. Free checkers cast a disparaging eye with a fearful warning, "You won't be able to figure them out," if they saw you approaching the self-serve counter. A few months later I see increased usage of these self-check lines. Also our Home Depot has them, but so far no grocery stores,

Two difficulties I have noticed are purchasing items like glue, paint products and anything else the kids like to sniff. The machine stops the check and calls for someone to intervene to approve the sale. Here, I think they could add a drivers license scan (my license from Arizona has a bar code on back) to indicate an adult is the purchaser. The second is the annoyance of the weight-sensitive packing area. Pick up a bag to put in your cart for departure and the machine scolds you and stops the check. Other than this, I love the self-serve lines and will welcome the scanners when they get here.

Janna's note points to the many details and quirks that any new system has to master, some of which, like approving restricted purchases (alcohol, tobacco, and spray paint), still require human intervention. After many trials with the weight-sensitive self-checkout, I've learned that if you ignore the little voice it will shut up and let you continue checking. But reader Charles Compton points out the good reasons behind that sometimes-annoying feature:

A fascinating piece today on your hand-held scanner experience.

Here in Tenessee, the Ingle's supermarket chain last year began installing automated checkout stands, which I find work quite well.

Items are passed over a scanner, then placed in bags on a carousel.

The computer, it turns out, knows not only the item scanned, but the weight of each item. If you scan a half-gallon conatiner of orange juice, the computer expects something weighing roughly 64 ounces to be placed in the bag on the carousel.

That makes it just about impossible to cheat, even accidentally.

The system accepts cash and coins, and credit/debit cards. You can get up to $100 cash back if you use a card.

It also lets you scan your discount card to take advantage of in-store specials.

There was a brief problem with acceptance of the newly redesigned $20 bills, but that's now been fixed.

Overall, the system works so well that for most grocery trips, I don't even have contact with a live person.

It's pretty clear that grocery checkout clerks are going to go the way of bank tellers. They won't disappear altogether, but there will be many fewer of them. Grocery employees will have to add value to the customer's experience, not simply process their purchases.

Posted by Virginia at 02:33 PM


SITE UPDATES
I've updated my list of future speeches and appearances--including a rare Dallas appearance at the April 3 "Tables of Content" dinner benefiting the Friends of the SMU Libraries. I've also updated the list of reviews of The Substance of Style, though I'm missing a couple of major reviews (Financial Times and Metropolis) that aren't online.
Posted by Virginia at 11:27 AM


March 20, 2004

MORE ON CUPHOLDERS
Recalling his own dad's '61 Falcon, reader Sandy Smith notes: "I think as much food is eaten in cars now as then, it's just that people insist they need to drive while doing it, requiring cup*holders* instead of cuprests. If they would do that instead of cellphones I honestly wouldn't mind." I'm with Sandy--drinks, OK, cellphones, bad.
Posted by Virginia at 01:00 AM


STILL MORE NAME STRATEGIES
Reader Paul Hager writes:
Thought I'd toss in my family's approach to naming. My wife's parents followed the traditional approach -- the male surname became the family name. In their case, the original name in Germany was Weihrauch (incense or, literally "holy smoke"). When they made in to the U.S. (the family barely made it out of Germany in 1938), they changed the name to Wyle.

In patrilineal descent, the family name is passed down through the father's line. The idea of the female's family name disappearing when the woman marries has always seemed grossly unfair to me. I don't see matrilineal descent as being any better, though it has never existed in the U.S., as far as I know. The hyphenate name approach -- I don't know what to call it -- is problematic because if you want to keep the family names through multiple generations, you end up with ridiculously long names. The alternative would have to involve some sort of complex formula for dropping one of the hypenates when the hypenate marries.

Back when I was studying cultural anthropology, I came across a different approach called bilineal descent. In bilineal descent, sons take the father's name and daughters take the wife's name. This made a lot of sense to me. I suggested this approach to my wife, who kept her family name -- I also pointed out that the Wyle line in the U.S. had produced many more females than males and I thought it particularly appropriate for a Jewish line that had escaped the Holocaust to continue whether it produced males or not. So, we adopted bilineal descent.

We now have two daughters -- Liana Valentina Wyle and Alissa Lise Wyle -- and no sons. Works for me.

Additional note on the middle names, which I picked. Valentina is for Valentina Tereshkova, the first woman in space. Lise is for Lise Meitner, who was robbed of a Nobel Prize in physics for the 1938 discovery of fission in uranium because she was (1) female and (2) Jewish.

Posted by Virginia at 12:49 AM


PRESCRIPTION FOR BANNING RESEARCH
The United States has a politically influential religious right and a cultural tradition of distrusting government intervention in private affairs. (That's "distrusting" not "never allowing.") Canada has neither a politically influential religious right nor any cultural tradition of distrusting government regulation. Guess which country has banned cloning human cells for research? From the Wired News report:
Canada last week passed a bill that bans human cloning but permits research using stem cells derived from embryos -- research that scientists hope will lead to therapies for many of the worst human diseases. The bill states that "No person shall knowingly create a human clone by using any technique," which would include therapeutic cloning, a technology researchers believe could lead to revolutionary treatments. The bill still requires "royal assent" from the governor general before it becomes law, but that is considered a formality.

The U.S. also has political gridlock--the best way to block new forms of regulation.

Posted by Virginia at 12:43 AM


March 18, 2004

TEST CASE
The WaPost editorializes on a good test of how serious the administration is about spreading liberal democracy in the Mideast. Does the case for freedom include our good friends the Saudis?
The Saudi crackdown began Monday with the arrest of at least five prominent intellectuals, including professors Abdullah Hamed, Matrouk Faleh and Mohammed Said Tayeb; by yesterday the number of detained was reported to be as high as 10, though several were said to have been released. Those arrested include several leading political liberals as well as moderate Islamists. Most signed a petition in December calling on Crown Prince Abdullah to lay out a timetable for making Saudi Arabia a constitutional monarchy -- a demand that sounds far-fetched now but sets a reasonable goal for the long run.

That, it seems, was not their offense. What prompted the arrests, Saudi sources say, was a plan by the reformers to establish an independent human rights organization. The professors first asked permission to set up the group, only to be told that the government planned to establish its own human rights organization. Predictably, the official group rolled out last week excluded the dissidents as well as other notable government critics. So the reformers revived their plan for an independent organization -- only to be dragged from their classrooms by Interior Ministry officials, purportedly for "questioning." The point was obvious: to stifle what would have been a genuinely independent movement to advocate for political freedom, women's rights and other reforms.

Posted by Virginia at 06:50 PM


MORE ON NAMES
Reader Dan Mallon writes:
When we were married almost 13 years ago, my wife and I combined our last names with a hyphen. It wasn't too bad. I liked Mallon-Kraft better than Kraft-Mallon, so my wife's name went last.

I got a bit of grief from some of my buddies, but no real hassles, so it wasn't much of a problem personally. However, the general public couldn't figure out a hyphenated name for the life of them. I got mail to Mallonkraft, Mallograft, Maccon-karft, Kraft D. Mallon,....

People would abbreviate, "the M-Krafts are coming... the M-Ks.... the Mallon-Ks..."

When our son was 2, we changed to just Mallon. I believe my wife felt sufficiently liberated in our marriage that the consequences of the kid with a hyphenated name were more pressing. It's not that there'd be big consequences, but rather a matter of inconvenience. My wife said something to the effect, "If people are just going to abbreviate it, the whole point of retaining both names doesn't make much sense."

Posted by Virginia at 06:42 PM


March 17, 2004

SPRING IN DALLAS

Taken with my new Palm Zire 71, which isn't even really a camera.
Posted by Virginia at 10:38 PM


STEM CELL NEWS
Geron Corp., which owns nine of the embryonic stem cell lines eligible for federal research money, has successfully used stem cells to cure mice of spinal injuries. According to the WSJ report (link should work for a week), Geron plans to try the technique on humans with new spinal injuries. From the report:
The Menlo Park, Calif., company hopes that injecting stem cells -- which have been modified to become the naturally unreplacable cells that insulate nerve cells -- into the site of a spinal trauma will help reduce the severity of paralysis.

It worked in mice. The company anesthetized the rodents and broke each of their backs in the same way. The control group ended up paraplegic, unable to move below the waist. A video showed these mice dragging around hindquarters. For the others, Geron scientists injected the site of the injury with human embryonic stem cells. Within a couple of weeks, these mice were walking on their hind legs.

Dr. Okarma said he expects this to help only for new cases of spinal injury. "Scar tissue gets in the way, so this won't help the Christopher Reeves of the world," he said. But it could be a potential answer for the 11,000 Americans who suffer spinal-cord injury each year. "What we are achieving in this model is what no drug could ever do," he said.

Next year, the company plans to file for FDA approval to start studying stem cells in humans with new spinal-cord injuries.

Rodman & Renshaw analyst Ren Benjamin expects the agency to ask for substantial animal safety data before allowing human studies because the company obviously won't be able to test the safety of the stem cells on healthy adults who haven't already suffered spinal injury. Mr. Benjamin doesn't own Geron shares, but his firm did investment banking for Geron in the past 12 months.

If the process ends up working, Geron would probably be able to charge a hefty sum for the treatment. "Think of the benefit to those patients versus the economic burden if you remain crippled," Mr. Benjamin said.

Posted by Virginia at 04:58 PM


FUTURISTIC TECH
I recently tried out the sort of background technology they could have used on Century City. The Albertson's in my neighborhood has introduced "Shop 'n' Scan," a handheld scanner you take around the store with you, scanning the prices of your groceries as you pick them up. Based on my trial run, the scanner works great--it's actually fun and it shortens the checkout process enormously. (Here's a dopey set of photos from a local radio station.) Some retailing experts are afraid eliminating personal contact with the checkers will reduce customer loyalty. Unless the general public is radically different from me, I doubt that actual customers look forward to those encounters, though, of course, a pleasant checker is better than a grumpy one. Most of us just want to get our stuff and leave. I think these scanners will be everywhere in a few years.

The one flaw in the system is that today's grocery carts don't accommodate bags, and Shop 'n' Scan assumes you'll bag as you go. We need a redesigned version of IDEO's famous shopping cart, one that takes cheap, disposable bags instead of fancy plastic boxes.

Posted by Virginia at 04:35 PM


2030 LOOKS JUST LIKE TODAY
Last night, I watched Century City, the new lawyers show set in the year 2030. The idea of the show is promising but, like most critics I was unimpressed. The show's characters were awfully flat and the setting was almost exactly like today. Real lawyers in the future would take for granted legal, cultural, and technological developments that strike us as strange. It's the background, not the cutting-edge issues, that makes the present feel different from the past. A 1978 show about 2004 might have featured a plotline on cloning. It wouldn't have routinely shown 40-year-old new parents of twins or business people walking down the street talking to no one, with wires hanging out of their ears. It wouldn't have Starbucks, or Queer Eye for the Straight Guy, or rock-and-roll megachurches. (Come to think of it, today's networks haven't discovered rock-and-roll megachurches either.)
Posted by Virginia at 04:13 PM


HOW I BECAME A SIZE 6
Yes, I've lost weight. But when I weighed this much in my 20s, I was between an 8 and a 10. MSNBC reports on a survey to measure the trend:
CHARLOTTE, N.C. - Well into what paleontologists of the future might call the Fast Food Drive-Thru Epoch, the most complete body survey conducted in 50 years shows Americans have super-sized, particularly in the waist and hips.

TC2, a company based in the Raleigh suburb of Cary, used light-pulsing, 3-D scanner technology to measure some 10,000 Americans of all ages and ethnicities. The SizeUSA survey confirmed that all those extra french fries have come with a price.

The study was funded by clothing manufacturers, the military and colleges and universities, all of whom have a keen interest in body sizes.

Size 8 has long been thought to represent the measurements of the average American woman. In the clothing industry, a size 8 officially is supposed to be a 35-inch bust, a 27-inch waist, and 37-1/2-inch hip.

But in the survey, white women ages 18 to 25 came in, on average, at 38-32-41, with white women ages 36 to 45 coming in at 41-34-43.

In truth, some manufacturers made the adjustment years ago. Some sell a size 10 as a size 8 to flatter women's vanity, TC2's Jim Lovejoy, who conducted the survey, said in a telephone interview Monday.

Of course, as ergonomic experts have started to notice, no one really comes in a standard size. There are too many potential variables. No matter how you renumber the sizes, I'll always have short arms and long legs, a short waist, and a very small waist-hip ratio. So nothing will fit. (And don't get me started on shoes.) That's why there are tailors.

Posted by Virginia at 04:01 PM


POSTREL *IS* MY NAME
I get a mildly ticked off whenever I read in the NYT's Vows section that So-and-So Bride "will keep her name." What they mean is that she'll keep her father's name. ("Her" name is her first name.)

On the many occasions I've been asked to defend my choice of surnames, I've always said that I love my father but I chose my husband and, besides, I legitimately get the initials V.I.P. (Another bonus is a name no one else has. Postrel is an Ellis Island concoction and, since most Jews wrongly believe my first name refers to Jesus's mother rather than Elizabeth I, there are no other Virginias in the family.) Fortunately, today's brides don't make such a big deal of the name game, as Katie Roiphe (her maiden name) explains:

Interestingly, over the past 10 years fewer and fewer women have kept their maiden names. According to a recent study by Harvard economics professor Claudia Goldin, the number of college-educated women in their 30s keeping their name has dropped from 27 percent in 1990 to 19 percent in 2004. Goldin suggests that this may be because we are moving toward a more conservative view of marriage. Perhaps. But it may also be that the maiden name is no longer a fraught political issue. These days, no one is shocked when an independent-minded woman takes her husband's name, any more than one is shocked when she announces that she is staying at home with her kids. Today, the decision is one of convenience, of a kind of luxuryï¿‘which name do you like the sound of? What do you feel like doing? The politics are almost incidental. Our fundamental independence is not so imperiled that we need to keep our names. The statement has, thanks to a more dogmatic generation, been made. Now we dabble in the traditional. We cobble together names. At this pointï¿‘apologies to Lucy Stone, and her pioneering work in name keepingï¿‘our attitude is: Whatever works.

True liberation makes the personal apolitical.

Posted by Virginia at 03:52 PM


SUPPORT YOUR FAVORITE WEBSITES
As Instapundit has recently noted, Amazon sells just about everything under the sun these days. What Glenn didn't tell you is that if you buy any of this stuff starting from a link on an Amazon Associates site like this one, the site owner gets a cut, usually about 5 percent. If the InstaFamily weren't already rolling in dough, Glenn could have put a code to his wife's site on that link to the milk. On this site, there's always an Associates code in the Amazon links. So if you're in the market for a Segway or a huge flat-screen TV, please start here.
Posted by Virginia at 03:51 PM


WHERE DO CUPHOLDERS COME FROM?
One of the most noticeable differences between the 1986 Civic I traded in in April and the 2003 Civic that replaced it is that my new car has holders for my Diet Cokes--no more squeezing cans between the driver's seat and the door, which was a passable substitute except it didn't work for 20-ounce bottles. Writing on Slate, Henry Petroski, whom TFAIE readers will know for his "form follows failure" formulation, looks at the evolution of cupholders. I remember those little dents in the glove compartment lid from my parents' 1961 Ford Falcon, and the old days when McDonald's not only didn't have wi-fi, it didn't even have seats.
Posted by Virginia at 03:42 PM


COMFY CHAIR REVOLUTION INDEED
When Ray Kroc was spreading McDonald's, he deliberately made the seats uncomfortable so people wouldn't hang out too long. Now McDonald's is rolling out wi-fi connections, the better to lure patrons into lingering and perhaps buying more food. CNet News looks at the strategy.
Posted by Virginia at 03:41 PM


WHY SUMMER GAS COSTS SO MUCH
Lynne Kiesling has a good posting on the economics of expensive summer gasoline. Since prices rise every summer, why doesn't some smart person stockpile cheaper winter gas?
Posted by Virginia at 03:38 PM


March 16, 2004

DIFFERENT REACTIONS
A friend spending the year in France writes:
You cannot believe how many people in France do not believe me when I say that an attack on the US would favor Bush. They say, an attack by Al Qaeda would show that Dean is right, Bush lied, etc. And I go, HUH???!?

They think that an attack before the election would help Kerry win. The fact that so many bozos on the left in Europe think this, is probably a sign that Al Qaeda is gonna try real real hard to hit the US before November.

Otherwise I figure, Italy, Poland, or Greece is on their hit list.

Maybe Kerry can explain to his foreign friends that this theory about American reactions to terrorism is 100% wrong. Let's hope Al Qaeda is not as naive as the French.

Posted by Virginia at 11:16 AM


March 15, 2004

RIGHT TO CHOOSE
With support from the National Institutes of Health, the University of Washington is testing the idea of letting women buy birth control pills without a prescription. From the substantial A.P. report:
More than 50 woman have enrolled since the study was launched Feb. 23 by the UW School of Pharmacy and Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology with funding from the National Institutes of Health. Researchers hope to enroll 300 women.

Women 18 to 45 years old can visit any of eight Fred Meyer or Bartell pharmacies in Seattle and its suburbs, complete a health questionnaire and have their weight and blood pressure checked.

If they pass a good-health checklist, they can obtain three months of birth-control pills or patches right away, and an additional nine months’ worth at a follow-up visit. The price is $25 per visit plus the medicine. Insurance companies generally will not pay.

Yes, yes, yes, it's a good idea to have an annual physical, and the need for a birth control prescription often prompts women to see their doctors. But it's also a good idea to floss your teeth and watch your diet. Just because something is a good idea doesn't mean your right to buy birth control should be contingent on that practice.

Posted by Virginia at 11:58 PM


WHAT SELLS?
If you want to sell magazines, put the Virgin Mary on the cover and forget about Ariel Sharon. (In other news, Sarah Michelle Geller sells better than Jon Stewart). Here's a look at the best and worst-selling magazine covers of 2003. (Via L.A. Observed.)
Posted by Virginia at 11:47 PM


VIOLENCE FOR ITS OWN SAKE
This WaPost piece by Fareed Zakaria provides the first coherent argument I've heard for thinking that a "war on terrorism," as opposed to a war against enemies using terrorism, might be a meaningful concept. I'm not sure what conclusions I draw, but he paints a convincing, if depressing, picture:
Yet with many terrorist groups -- like ETA, like al Qaeda -- violence has become an end in itself. They want a lot of people dead, period.

Some in Spain have argued that if an Islamic group proves to be the culprit, Spaniards will blame Prime Minister Jose Maria Aznar. It was his support for America and the war in Iraq that invited the wrath of the fundamentalists. But other recent targets of Islamic militants have been Turkey, Morocco, Tunisia, Saudi Arabia and Indonesia, not one of which supported the war or sent troops into Iraq in the after-war. Al Qaeda's declaration of jihad had, as its first demand, the withdrawal of American troops from Saudi Arabia. Osama bin Laden does not seem to have noticed, but the troops are gone -- yet the jihad continues. The reasons come and go, the violence endures.

Read the whole thing.

Posted by Virginia at 11:17 AM


THE TERRORISTS HAVE WON
Was the massacre in Madrid the work of al Qaeda? Of ETA? Of ETA and al Qaeda in a new alliance? Of ETA pretending to be al Qaeda? Regardless of its perpetrators, the election results provide an unhappy, and potentially dangerous, lesson: If you kill enough people, you can change the outcome of a democratic election.

Warning to terrorists: Americans do not draw the same conclusions from massacres that the Spanish did. Americans tend to rally around the president and direct our anger outward.

Posted by Virginia at 11:14 AM


March 13, 2004

SPANISH MASSACRE
The death toll in the Madrid bombings is now up to 200 people. Sophisticates think it's tacky to call such actions "evil," but I don't know what other term applies. If wantonly slaughtering innocent people isn't evil, what is?

My friend Xavier Lewis writes from Brussels:

Demonstrations took place across Europe to express sympathy for the victims and anger at the perpetrators. We had one in Brussels, attended by several thousand Spaniards and non Spaniards like me nothwithstanding the cold and rain. I took a few not very good photo.

The husband of a lawyer I know in Madrid is a surgeon. According to him the injuries were ghastly. A couple of details of the attacks emphasize their callousness (if need be). The train stations targeted bring into the city people from working class suburbs--there were lots immigrant workers on them. The stations also serve a line to a big university town-- hundreds of students were making their way to classes. And next to one of the stations is a large school. Hence the high number of children and young people among the victims.

A controversy is raging as to whether ETA or Al Quaeda is responsible. Frankly it does not really matter to the rest of us who did it. Our sympathy for the victims remains the same and it is wrong to do it regardless. The press is working itself up about it, though. If it was Al Quaeda, the press seems to think it was revenge on Spain for supporting the US in Iraq. But Sept 11, 2001 was not revenge on the US for its role in toppling Saddam was it?

Wired News has an interesting piece on the massive online response to the bombings.

Posted by Virginia at 12:08 PM


March 10, 2004

WRONG NUMBER
What happens if your new cell phone has Chris Rock's old (but not very old) phone number? Here's the tale, via Jeff Jarvis. Reminds me of the time Steve and I moved to a new apartment in L.A. and got the old phone number of a movie producer. Typical message on our answering machine, which identified the number as belonging to the Postrels: "This is Demi Moore's office, and we're updating our Rolodex..." No calls from actual famous people, though.
Posted by Virginia at 10:39 PM


WHERE ARE THE JOBS, CONT'D
Reader Tim Belknap writes:
I am an 20-year veteran, operating executive at a rather gigantic company and we are hiring, but mostly for replacement and some niche growth areas (sales, engineers, product managers etc.). I think we'll just barely grow our employment year over year.

I don't think one can characterize the American economy by what us Big Multinationals do, but all of you are on to something regarding how expensive and risky it is to do business now than it was 5 years ago.

All of the [Sarbanes-Oxley] costs are going to be amortized on employees...so we've made it even more expensive to hire people. Already, we put aside nearly 40 cents on the dollar for every employee we hire for benefits, pension, healthcare etc. How long until that is dollar for dollar? Are you kidding me?

The structure costs of business reporting are brutal also. I am sure you've seen the report from Emerson on US competiveness.

And frankly, people can be a pain in the rear. At 5.6% unemployment, you just can't convince me or any of my peers that the people out there looking for work are top notch...and as expensive as it is to hire someone, we want the best. Otherwise, you'd be surprised how well you can get by without someone, especially someone of mediocre professional value.

So we are either hiring from campus (aren't in the 5.6%) or from other companies (ditto).

I know this "get by" without hiring is real because we've never seen the leverage on sales like we are seeing now. That is, our revenues have grown double digits, and we've not added anyone, or even added any physical capacity.

I'm sure this doesn't help Bush, but it has very little to do with him or his team anyway. I laughed out loud when I heard Carville's response on Meet The Press this weekend. Russert asked him what specifically the Democrats would do to help improve job growth and he said something like "spend more money on roads and infrastructure to make us more productive" I thought Industrial Policy was the 1992 mantra?

The 5.6 percent unemployment isn't equally distributed across professions; in fields with lots of layoffs, job seekers may in fact be highly qualified. But Tim's note captures the risk aversion that's holding down hiring. It also points to the unmentionable reason high-tech companies are looking abroad for programmers: When you're trying to get the very, very best--the top 1 percent--it helps to expand the pool to a billion Indians, not to mention drawing from an elitist education system that leaves lots of children behind but gives the geniuses unsurpassed training.

Posted by Virginia at 10:18 PM


March 09, 2004

BIOETHICS AND THE BRAIN
Blogging on Corante's The Loom, Carl Zimmer calls attention to yet another flaw in the Kass Commission's anti-scientific approach to its subject:
Kass stumbled on another count, one that I think speaks to a profound problem with the council and one that I haven’t read much comment on. Kass claimed that Blackburn had to be replaced because the council will now be focusing on neuroscience, rather than reproduction and genetics, Blackburn's areas of expertise. If that’s true, then the council is not ready for a shift to the brain. If the Bush administration wanted to beef up the council's neuroscience credentials, surely they would have replaced Blackburn and May with neuroscientists. They did not. In fact, the council as it's now constituted has only one member who does research on neuroscience.

Even more troubling, though, is the indifference the council has shown to what neuroscience tells us about bioethics itself.

Kass has written in the past about how we should base our moral judgments in part on what he calls "the wisdom of repugnance." In other words, the feeling you get in your bones that something is wrong is a reliable guide to what really is wrong. The Council on Bioethics embraces Kass's philosophy. They have declared that happiness exists to let us recognize what is good in life, while real anger and sadness reveal to us what is evil and unjust. "Emotional flourishing of human beings in this world requires that feelings jibe with the truth of things, both as effect and as cause," they write. By extension, repugnance is a good guide for making decisions about bioethics. If cloning gives you the creeps, it’s wrong.

But what exactly produces those creeps? In recent years neuroscientists and psychologists have made huge strides in understanding both emotions and moral judgments. They've scanned people's brains as they decide whether things are right or wrong; they've looked at the brain's neurochemistry, and they've gotten insights from the brains of animals and the fossils of ancient hominids as well. And their conclusions seriously undermine the philosophy of the council.

Read the whole post and its links. Of course, this irreverently materialist approach to the brain is exactly what we can expect the Kass Commission to attack next. Get ready to hear about how authentic human beings don't take Prozac.

Posted by Virginia at 10:57 PM


THE IPOD AS A MODEL OF TRADE
Forbes.com has an interesting short piece on PortalPlayer Inc., the privately held Santa Clara company that supplies the chips and internal software for the iPod. PortalPlayer gets about $15 for every iPod sold, which makes it a very happy company. Peter Kafka reports:
Gary Johnson is having a very good 2004, too. His Santa Clara, Calif.-based shop, PortalPlayer Inc., supplies the chips and internal software that power Apple's iconic music player. More than 2 million of the white beauties have sold so far, with PortalPlayer grossing about $15 a pop.

Time for some boasting, no? No. Though PortalPlayer's connection to the iPod has been an open secret since 2002, Johnson doesn't dare acknowledge the relationship, for fear of offending his best--and a notoriously secretive--client. "I'm not even going to refer to those guys," he says.

Which is a shame, since Apple plays a starring role in PortalPlayer's success story. (Apple, for its part, will only confirm that PortalPlayer supplied "one of many components" for the iPod.) Privately held PortalPlayer says its revenue more than doubled to $20 million last year. In the fourth quarter it broke even for the first time (in the sense of earnings before interest, taxes and depreciation). Some people say the outfit could go public later this year....

Apple's in-house designers provide the look and feel that make the iPod so distinctive; PortalPlayer provides the innards that lie beneath. It won over Apple with a design that uses two modest processors and an operating system two years in the making.

PortalPlayer's "firmware" makes it easy for makers to mix and match features and rapidly stamp out upgrades without having to start from scratch. Apple picked PortalPlayer in the summer of 2001, and the iPod was in stores in November of that year.

This vertical disintegration is known as "outsourcing," whether it takes place at home, abroad, or in some combination. Companies, like individuals, specialize at what they do best, their partners to do the same, and the result is an increase in economic value all around. Self-sufficiency--for individuals, nations, or companies--sounds like a romantic ideal, but it's really a prescription for mediocrity and hardship.

Posted by Virginia at 11:16 AM


WHERE ARE THE JOBS?
The WaPost's David Ignatius offers an interesting hypothesis:
I can't begin to answer the jobs question, but I can provide some shreds of anecdotal evidence, drawn from recent conversations with business executives in the United States and abroad.

My sense is that investors and managers are still traumatized by the shocks to the system of the past three years--a chain of events including the collapse of the high-tech bubble; the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001; a global war against Islamic terrorism; and the fallout from the Enron scandal.

These shocks, taken together, have made investors more risk-averse and cautious. Economists would define it as a change in the mental "discount" rate by which investors calculate how big a return they'll require in the future to part with their cash today. And at the very time investors are looking for this higher risk premium, prospective annual returns have settled back toward historical levels from the 20 percent-plus rates of the bubble years.

Adding to this culture of caution are the regulatory changes that followed the tech collapse, the Enron fiasco and other Wall Street scandals. Hoping to restore investor confidence, Congress passed the Sarbanes-Oxley bill, which required corporate chief executives, in effect, to take personal responsibility for what their underlings were doing in complicated financial transactions. That sounds great in principle, but in practice it has added to the wariness of CEOs, and probably reduced the job-creating dynamism of the economy.

One unintended consequence of the new rules is that they make it costlier for small start-up companies to go public. Ann Winblad, who is one of the principals of a big San Francisco investment firm, Hummer Winblad Venture Partners, estimates that for a company with $50 million in revenue, the extra cost of compliance could total $1 million to $3 million annually -- when you add in the three required independent directors, the outside auditors, the internal auditors, the directors' and officers' insurance, and other costs.

Certainly the venture capital business reflects the new caution: Where 629 venture funds raised a total of $105.4 billion in 2000, last year there were just 113 funds that raised $10.8 billion. Warren Buffett, the iconic figure of American capitalism, expressed the new wariness in his annual report released Saturday. Noting that he's sitting on a company-record $36 billion in cash, he explained: "Our capital is underutilized now. . . . It's a painful condition to be in -- but not as painful as doing something stupid."

Read the whole (short) thing.

Posted by Virginia at 10:21 AM


STYLE AND SUBSTANCE
I finally had a chance to fondle the mini iPod today, and I'm not the least bit surprised that they're flying out of the stores. They're beautiful and cute at the same time. And how often do you really need to carry around more than 1,000 songs? In this case, style represents a huge quality improvement, regardless of what capacity-obsessed analysts may have thought.

Thanks to Jeff Taylor for sending this article about the early sales results:

Apple found sweet success last year with the original iPod, which, paired with legitimate song service iTunes, has won the company dominant market position in both market sectors. Apple said it intends to broaden the market further for iPod by pushing the mini version--a 3.6-ounce player capable of holding 1,000 CD-quality songs.

Early indications are that iPod mini, which garnered more than 100,000 preorders since being announced in January, is outdoing the success of the original iPod, which sold 125,000 units in its first quarter of availability, Apple said.

"The customer response has been incredible--it's just been off the charts," Apple worldwide iPod marketing manager Danika Cleary told TechNewsWorld. "It's meeting and exceeding our expectations."

Referring to long lines at Apple stores for the iPod-mini debut, Cleary said the smaller player, priced at US$250, is riding the wave of popularity generated by the original iPod, which Apple has sold to more than 2 million customers. The company sold 730,000 of the music players during the holiday quarter alone, she reported.

The mini's stylish charm is captivating even tech columnists:

At a Best Buy store in Manhattan a week ago Friday, they lined up to plunk down $250 on the newest flavor, the iPod Mini. Queues like this one used to form only on very special occasions--the release of a Rolling Stones album, Springsteen tickets--but not for a battery-operated music player. By 7 p.m., the thing was sold out. "Try next week," said the clerk. "Come early."

Cuddliness has been one key in driving the success of iPods in the past couple of years. And, this low-carb South Beach model arrives in a rainbow of metallic hues. Compared to its snow-white big brother, the Mini is less than half the size and only about half as heavy. The guts, however, are a different can of technology: While the least-expensive "normal" iPod spins a dense 15-gig hard drive that holds nearly 4,000 tunes, Junior is built around a 4GB Hitachi-built hard disc with a max capacity of about 1,000 songs.

The difference in price is $50; the trade-off--sex and style and wow, for more data storage in the more expensive large 'Pod--is your choice to make.

Of course, I'll choose the Mini. For cachet, it's without peer, the Louis Vuitton of portable audio. Sonically, it's a match for anything else MP3-ish on the market.

I didn't buy a mini iPod today, but that doesn't mean I didn't want to.

Posted by Virginia at 12:33 AM


March 08, 2004

THE ECONOMIC FUTURE
On Marginal Revolution, Tyler Cowen and Alex Tabarrok recently conducted lively discussion of whether we're facing economic and fiscal disaster. You can start with the final entry and read backwards.

Ultimately, both fiscal and economic futures depend on economic growth. If productivity (measured and unmeasured) keeps rising, even the fiscal problems become less significant. If our grandkids are filthy rich by today's standards, which is actually quite possible, they won't have as hard a time covering social security's promises. Medicare's, which rise with the medical standard of living, are a different matter--unless, of course, medical care somehow gets cheaper as well as better.

Posted by Virginia at 01:13 PM


VERY COOL PENS

For the paperback edition of TSOS, I did a Q&A that included a question about what recent designed objects I like. Among the answers: the Cross Ion pen, which comes in more colors and styles than I imagined before I went online to check the spelling of Ion. (I don't get any money if you order one, but don't let that stop you.)

Posted by Virginia at 12:32 PM


DISAPPOINTING FUNDRAISER?
The San Francisco Chronicle suggests that the turnout at Bush's Silicon Valley fundraiser was less than impressive. No Arnold, no star power.
President Bush gathered Republicans together north and south this week, picking up cash and praising Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, the political star who he said has shown "no party can take California for granted.''

Problem: The star was noticeably absent.

Schwarzenegger did not appear at public events for Bush on Wednesday in Los Angeles or Thursday in Bakersfield and Santa Clara.

And it showed.

The cavernous Santa Clara Convention Center was only half full at Bush's fund-raiser in Silicon Valley, normally a piggybank for political campaigns. Curtains masked vacant areas, but the sense of excitement was harder to cover.

Bush's solo act took in just $700,000, the smallest take of any of his eight California fund-raisers since last June, when Bush-Cheney '04 began to rake in the dough for the coming campaign.

Compare that with the night before. At an exclusive Republican National Committee fund-raiser in Los Angeles--the only one of three Bush fund-raisers the governor attended--the take was a juicy $3.5 million.

Why the small turnout for the president, whose office usually rates top billing? Several possibilities come to mind. His Silicon Valley support may simply be weak. High-tech types can't stand aggressive social conservatism, and that goes double when it comes to attacks on science. It's also possible that Bush's fundraising success has been so well publicized that "swing funders," as opposed to hard-core supporters, figure he just doesn't need the money and spend their political dollars elsewhere. State politics is hot right now.

Posted by Virginia at 12:16 PM


TIRED TALK
Debra Saunders covered Bush's Silicon Valley fundraising speech and has some friendly but tough advice for the Bush campaign. Bottom line: "It's time for some new material."
Posted by Virginia at 12:06 PM


March 05, 2004

SPEAKING OF THE KASS COMMISSION
Ron Bailey's devastating deconstruction of Leon Kass's claim not to know the views of the council's new members is a must read.

It's tacky to say it, so no one to my knowledge has. But I'll risk noting that in the head counts that characterize such commissions, Johns Hopkins neurosurgeon Benjamin Carson is probably not the replacement for Elizabeth Blackburn, as Kass maintains, but a more relevant and eminent substitute for Stephen Carter. The Bush administration is not colorblind, and the council needs to have a few public Christians among all the Straussians.

Posted by Virginia at 04:30 PM


BIG BRAINS
What makes human beings human? Our big brains. And where did they come from? Apparently a genetic defect that proved advantageous under just the right circumstances. Here's an excerpt from the Discover.com report:
Scientists have long suspected that humans evolved large brains because our hominid ancestors had to outwit and elude predators, learn to use fire, and develop complex social structures. The smart hominids survived, while the stupid ones were more likely to get eaten or freeze to death. Over millions of years, the result of this game of survival of the fittest was the appearance of big-brained, peculiarly intelligent modern humans. Now Bruce Lahn, a biomedical researcher at the University of Chicago, has found the first clear indication of the genetic changes that led to the rapid expansion of our brain.

Lahn and his colleagues looked at the abnormal spindle-like microcephaly associated (ASPM) gene, which scientists had previously identified as a key player in brain development. He grew intrigued by ASPM after other researchers discovered that serious defects in the gene cause microcephaly--a drastic reduction in the size of the brain’s cerebral cortex, the region responsible for such higher brain functions as abstract thought and planning. Lahn wondered: Could changes in this gene, favored by the pressures of natural selection, have directed the development of the big, modern human brain?

To find out, Lahn compared the sequence of the human ASPM gene with the equivalent gene sequences of various primates--including chimpanzees, gorillas, and gibbons--and with the sequences of nonprimate species such as mice, cows, and dogs. He isolated genetic mutations that altered the structure of the ASPM protein and thus could have affected brain size, while weeding out the random mutations that had no structural effect and hence would have been unaffected by evolutionary pressures. Lahn found that the ASPM gene in humans has undergone 15 important mutations since we last shared a common ancestor with chimpanzees, about 5 million years ago. Significantly, compared with the other animals studied, humans have experienced the fastest overall rate of change in the gene since our evolutionary line parted ways with chimpanzees and other primates. Evidently, ASPM responded to natural selection, and the resulting changes contributed to our large brains.

This sort of indirect genetic evidence for human evolution is going to pile up until it resembles the overwhelming geological case against believing the earth is a few thousand years old. More important, and more interesting, will be how understanding the genetic origins of brain functions lets us affect how our minds work. With the Kass Commission hot to talk about brains, can proposals for new criminal laws against neuroscience be far behind? After all, that research might threaten classical conceptions of the mind. And if they were good enough for Plato, they're good enough for us.

Posted by Virginia at 04:16 PM


March 03, 2004

I'LL SECOND THAT
For the three of you who haven't already seen it, Instapundit has a must-read post, featuring comments from reader Glenn Boice. An excerpt:
People like me make up a bloc of sorts for this president, too: call it the "war base," perhaps. But I have found that the President's clarity of vision following 9/11 has not been maintained as the news cycle bogs down over the many months with Iraq and its reconstruction. I believe there is still much to do - involving Iran, North Korea, Syria, Algeria, Pakistan's ISI, and others - and the president has not articulated a clear vision of what's next now that the Taliban and Hussein have been dispatched.

To my mind, continued support of a president who has many objectionable policies in other areas of interest to me is dependent upon confidence in his future leadership on the war. I for one need to hear much more from him about the war objectives for his second term.

This "pandering" political strategy works only when voters such as myself sacrifice less-important principles in favor of the most important, the war. However, if I come to believe that a Democratic candidate can be as effective on the war as President Bush, or - worse - that President Bush in a second term will be as ineffective on the war as the likely Democratic candidates, then my heretofore solid support for the President will be far less certain this fall.

Posted by Virginia at 11:42 AM


THE PERILS OF PACIFIC TIME
Easterners don't really believe that it's three hours earlier on the West Coast. From today's San Francisco Chronicle:
California Democrats were still heading to the polls late Tuesday afternoon when networks announced John Kerry as the likely Democratic nominee -- and John Edwards as a has-been.

By 5 p.m., a full three hours before polls closed in the nation's most populous state, CNN reported that Edwards was expected to drop out of the Democratic presidential race today. The announcement surprised party insiders and angered some supporters who hoped the North Carolina senator would grab enough of the state's 370 delegates to keep his hopes alive.

The networks make a big deal of not reporting results (except in Florida) while the polls are still open. But in national elections, the polls are still open on the West Coast for a long, long time. And then there's Hawaii (but at least it's small and overwhelmingly Democratic).

Posted by Virginia at 11:37 AM


March 02, 2004

EXTENDED FAMILY VALUES, PART II
As a policy analyst, I'm none too sure about the wisdom of San Francisco granting marriage licenses to gay and lesbian couples, in apparent defiance of California law. (As an aside, this is hardly the first time an official flouted statutory law in favor of a personal interpretation of the California constitution. Secretary of State March Fong Eu did it, for instance, when she allowed Ron Unz to run for governor in defiance of residency requirements) As I predicted, all political hell has broken loose as Massachusetts and San Francisco have pushed the issue.

As a person, however, I was thrilled to hear from my sisters-in-law, Pam Postrel and Mindy Blum, that they'd driven all night from L.A. to San Francisco to tie the knot. (You have no idea how hard it is to get a Postrel to have a wedding....) They love each other, and I love them. They are wonderful people. They are--both of them--part of my family, regardless of what the law decrees.

I asked Pam, whose name will be familiar to regular blog readers, if she had thoughts she'd like to share with the world. Last week she sent the following:

Dear Virginia,

Ever since your kind invitation to share our thoughts on our marriage experience, I’ve wanted to get it all down, but I did my usual procrastinating.

I wanted to write about all the levels on which it resonated with us… some expected, some surprising, even to us.

I wanted to write about the incredible warmth and enthusiasm of the volunteers and employees of the City of San Francisco, who seemed genuinely delighted to be participating in this moment in history.

About the beauty of the people in line with us… the camaraderie, the instant connection to these couples who, like us, always said that if it was ever legal, they'd get married. (There was a couple behind us who drove in from Las Vegas. How ironic is that?)

About the moment of utter joy when we faced each other to exchange vows and realized that through nineteen years of ups and downs, the conception and raising of two children, all the apartments rented, the purchase of our house, the career support we’ve provided each other, the disappointments, the knock-down drag-outs… that we still actively and passionately wanted to say "I do." The emotion of that moment flooded us in a way it never could for those who have the freedom to rush into marriage. (If it’s possible there’s an advantage to this gross discrimination, I guess that’s it.)

About the real sense of belonging and acceptance (in spite of ourselves) as we received our marriage license LIKE EVERY OTHER TAX-PAYING CITIZEN IN THIS COUNTRY.

About waking up the next morning in a hastily-acquired hotel room at The Four Seasons in San Francisco in the most comfortable bed I’ve ever been in with… my wife.

About the six-hour drive home, where Mindy and I kept looking at each other with stupid grins saying, "We're married." And "How cool is this?"

About the director of our kids' school high-fiving Mindy… and the office full of balloons and thrilled colleagues I came back to after our not-quite 48-hour whirlwind excursion to San Francisco.

About the surprise of hearing our seven-year old daughter, who wasn't sure she was totally into this whole moms-getting-married thing, sing-songing into the phone to me days after the blessed event: "I have married parents, I have married parents."

I wanted to write about the humorous Postrel phenomenon of being the marryin' kind, but the wedding kind… not so much.

But I'm not feeling too damned humorous today. This morning I sat on my bed putting on my socks and watched the President of the United States of America declare war on my family. No, it wasn't unexpected. But, like the ceremony at the center of this whole hubbub, it had an unexpected emotional impact on me and, I'm sure the 3,300 others who've gotten married so far.

I wish I had written this before this morning's development. Well, as of today we're still married, dammit. And here are some photos. Told ya we were happy.

Posted by Virginia at 12:27 PM


EXTENDED FAMILY VALUES, PART I
By letting a state court rulling stand, the U.S. Supreme Court will let the littlest Postrels--my niece and nephew--stay in the family:
The U.S. Supreme Court left intact Monday a ground-breaking decision that validated a popular adoption procedure used by thousands of gay and lesbian couples in California. The court refused to review a California Supreme Court decision in August allowing second-parent adoptions, an arrangement in which a birth parent who intends to keep a child also agrees to have it adopted by a second parent. The state court's decision recognized as many as 20,000 adoptions by same-sex couples over the past two decades.

Imagine suddenly declaring 20,000 kids no longer part of their families--not just legally voiding their parents but their grandparents, uncles, aunts, and cousins. Legally, this case didn't seem all that strong--and you have to wonder about the moral compass of the woman who brought it--but it did go all the way to the supreme courts of both the state and the nation.

Posted by Virginia at 11:49 AM


A BETTER CONVERGENCE CHART
As a graphic designer friend said, my recent NYT column was marred by "an unfortunate graphic." Based on data I supplied in tabular form, it showed incomes in various regions converging to the national average but didn't show how fast that average was itself rising. The result was that good news looked like bad news.

Thanks to economist Kris Mitchener and the wonders of Excel, I can now supply a better chart. (Unlike the original chart, these numbers don't account for regional price variations; they do show constant dollars, however, using the national GDP deflator.)

Posted by Virginia at 11:43 AM


CONTEST CONTEST
Inspired by the proliferation of "X Prize"-style competitions to reward scientific or technical breakthroughs, Jay Manifold calls for new contest ideas and post some early responses.
Posted by Virginia at 11:33 AM


March 01, 2004

REAL FREE SPEECH
From the lead editorial in today's Philadelphia Inquirer:
Since the beginning, America has struggled with the concept of free speech. It's a great idea in the abstract. But when reality hits - when free speech alarms, threatens and offends - the temptation is to rein it in. But then it's not free speech anymore.

Universities have become prime places to witness this free speech dilemma. Virtually all institutions of higher learning today declare devotion to free speech and encourage students from diverse backgrounds to express themselves in equal measure.

At the same time - as if terrified all this free speaking might cross too many boundaries - universities also routinely have instituted codes of conduct reining in expression and actions that some groups might find offensive.

Shippensburg University in south-central Pennsylvania had a code that hammered free speech down to a nubbin: Students had a "right to express a personal belief system" but only if the expression did not "demean," "annoy" or "alarm" others. The university was for freedom, but only if it was not "inflammatory or harmful."

In other words, you can say what you want - so long as it doesn't bother a single other person.

Note that Shippensburg "had" these policies.

A feisty organization called the Foundation for Individual Rights in Education took Shippensburg to court. Lawyers for that Philadelphia-based group argued the university's policies violated students' rights to free speech, and U.S. District Court Judge John E. Jones III agreed. The judge said the university's policies could have a "chilling" effect on student expression.

Read the whole thing and learn more about FIRE here. I'm proud to be a member of their board of directors.

Posted by Virginia at 10:22 PM


NOT A PARODY
But it certainly sounds like one: Dick Clark sued for age discrimination
Posted by Virginia at 10:15 PM


SAUDI VISAS
The Volokh Conspiracy is following the story of whether the Saudi government refuses to grant visas to members of the Jewish faith, as its tourism board's website indicates. It's a long story, but I was supposed to go to Saudi Arabia earlier this year for a conference of American and Saudi intellectuals, opinion leaders, whatever you want to call us, organized by the Rockefeller Foundation and the Saudi government. When the visa application form asked for my religion, I wrote "Jewish." I got a visa, as did several other Jewish applicants. I don't know about regular tourists, but at least under the right circumstances the Saudis let in Jews. (Much to the relief of my loved ones, the conference was postponed after too many Americans chickened out, and I couldn't make the new dates.)
Posted by Virginia at 11:39 AM


BACK TO BLOGGING
After a terribly busy and wonderfully productive and stimulating February, my life has settled down enough to permit more frequent blogging. Thanks for your patience.
Posted by Virginia at 10:52 AM


IF THE ELECTION WERE HELD TODAY...
I wouldn't vote for president. Here's one reason.
Posted by Virginia at 10:47 AM


NUTRITIONAL INFO: WHO CARES?
Last fall, the FDA made some noises about requiring restaurants to post nutritional information, in hopes of discouraging Americans from consuming so much fattening food. The proposal didn't go very far, possibly because it would have hammered places that frequently change their menus--good restaurants--while having little effect on fast food chains.

The problem isn't that you can't get nutritional info about restaurant food. The problem is that customers don't care. When they do, restaurants respond--not just with information but with menu revisions. The response is so swift that it makes an embarrassingly perfect libertarian just-so story. Exhibit A: the sudden proliferation of Atkins-friendly dishes and carb counts. Of course, sometimes it gets a little silly. My favorite example is Einstein Bagel's new low carb bagel.

Posted by Virginia at 10:45 AM



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