Suppose we lived in an economic world with no borders, where goods, capital and people could move anywhere.

We've all heard the dire predictions of what would happen. All the businesses and jobs would rush to the places with the lowest wages. The poor countries would get richer, but only by making rich countries poorer.

Eventually we'd all be roughly equal, but formerly well-to-do Americans would be a lot worse off. Many Americans are afraid that globalization and free trade will have exactly this effect.

We rarely realize that we already live in a version of that theoretical world. The United States is one giant free trade zone. Businesses can move their plants, investors can move their money and workers can move themselves from region to region without government permission.

The rest is here.

That's the reply to the serious criticisms of the article. Then there's the more common, less serious criticism, "these aren't good jobs." Says who? Not the people who have them. If you look down on these jobs, that says more about your snobbery--or perhaps your ignorance of the drudgery of factory jobs--than about the work itself.

I've been writing about the evolution of work long enough to notice a persistent pattern: If you point out the high-wage jobs being created, people say, "We can't all be brainiacs and techies. What about the average high school graduate? They'll be flipping hamburgers at minimum wage." If, as in this article, you point out the error of that assumption and demonstrate that high school graduates are in fact finding work that pays reasonably well (and is satisfying to boot), people say, "Well, what about the computer programmers?"

The economy is constantly creating, as well as destroying, jobs for people with many different levels of skill and training. My NYTM piece was concerned mostly about people without much education, but with discipline and skills--the classic "work hard and play by the rules" middle class. I could have written a similar piece on jobs that do require higher education, but high-income, highly educated NYTM readers are more likely to know about those jobs.

As for the comment on Dan Drezner's site that freelancers have trouble getting paid, that's true for people like me--it's the bane of my financial existence--but it isn't true for people in the jobs I wrote about. They mostly get paid at the time they deliver their product or service.

My interest was in the question, Where will new jobs come from? A lot of non-economists are genuinely afraid that in the future there will be no jobs, or that there will be no jobs for people without large amounts of education--people like Denise Revely. From other research, I know of a number of aesthetic professions where jobs are growing rapidly. I found that in every such category the BLS counts were way under or, at best, obscured in categories dominated by losses in traditional manufacturing (e.g., paper mill workers vs. stone fabricators). Some of the undercount is accounted for by failing to count self-employed people, but not all of it. I don't, however, think that the BLS's survey errors are random and therefore unimportant if we want to understand where the economy is headed.

I take up this question in this weekend's NYT Magazine.

Of course, running gay Republicans in hopelessly Democratic districts is not entirely new in California politics. I remember back in 1992, when Mark Robbins ran for Congress in my district. A pre-election LAT feature reported:

In this, an election year of almost rabid anti-incumbency, it would seem that attorney Mark A. Robbins has a real opportunity to win a plum congressional seat representing much of the Westside and southern San Fernando Valley.

Robbins, 33, is a "fiscally responsive but socially aware" pro-choice candidate waging a well-financed and politically sophisticated campaign against an incumbent forced to run in an unfamiliar new district.

As an openly gay candidate, Robbins can count on some support from progressives and gay voters in Silverlake, West Hollywood and Santa Monica. And the fact that his opponent is a veteran congressman who bounced 434 checks in the House bank scandal -- and who is at the very heart of the Capitol Hill political Establishment -- doesn't hurt either. The incumbent, Robbins never tires of saying, "represents all that's wrong with the political system today."

Yet, political analysts give Robbins and three other candidates in the 29th Congressional District race little or no chance of winning. The reason: They are running against Rep. Henry A. Waxman, one of the most recognized and well-funded liberal politicians in the nation.

Robbins lost with 26% of the vote, to Waxman's 61%. I met him at a party not long after the election. "Hey, I voted for you," I said. He responded with a smile, "I wish more people had." Now he's the Bush administration's appointee as general counsel at the Office of Personnel Management.

And as a special bonus, here's a cool email from reader Martin McClellan, who wrote in response to the September posts:

I had to write after reading your post about the Les Paul story. I managed a very large used-guitar shop here in Seattle for nearly 7 years. Two stories came to mind while I read the post:

1. An old timer came into the shop to get some of his guitars worked on. He told us about working at the Gibson factory in the 70's. One day he was shown a flat of Les Paul bodies with the necks already glued on. Some had finish sprayed on, some didn't even have the necks shaped and curved from the raw block. His boss told him that these were flawed guitars, and his job? Run them all through the band saw. He did, he said, crying the whole time at having to destroy something so beautiful.

2. Another day a guy came in to try some amps, and with him he a large, heavy road case--the kind designed to keep a guitar safe in any type of transit. He popped it up on the counter, opened the top, and sitting there was a '58 flame top Les Paul in pretty good shape. If this were a movie, rays of golden sunlight would have shot from the case with a chorus of angels "aaaaaahhhhhhh"-ing in the background. I asked gingerly if I could inspect the guitar, and he gave his permission. I picked it up, and looked it over head to toe. Now, in the vintage guitar world, authenticity is king. A fine guitar that has been refinished could be worth considerably less than its counterpart with badly damaged original finish. Also, guitar parts are a large part of the equation--not only for value, but dating the guitar, making sure it's authentic, stock, etc. I spent 10 minutes with this guitar, and it was perfect. Every part on it was stock, the serial number and stamping impression were right, the nitro cellulose finish aged exactly as it should. The pickups, the knobs, the tuners, the wood on the neck, the flame maple on the top, the fade of the sunburst--all perfect. I'll bet if I pulled the wiring harness and looked at the potentiometers they would have a the right date too. But then I looked up at the musician and he had a thin, wry smile. "It's a fake" he said, and unscrewed the back panel that holds the electronics to show us the stamp of the maker.

Turns out there is a guy in Canada making perfect reproductions of these guitars. He makes them, ages them and sells them to people who can't afford the real deal. His price? $5000. And he's backed up for a few years, from what this musician told me. You can get a lot of guitar for that price, but maybe not a real sunburst, and if you want the real deal, this is the next best option. I always had good radar for guitars that are fake, or have been altered, and this one sent up no warning bells. It was a dead ringer for the original.

But mostly, the idea that a secondary market for these guitars that have been priced out of the reach of most professional musicians is an interesting phenomena--certainly one we see a lot with cheap (and some not-so-cheap) factory knock-offs of famous guitars. Outside of the guitar world, I think of the mass printing of famous paintings as posters, but the interesting thing about the guitars is that these aren't necessarily replicas in the standard sense, they are as much a piece of art and craftsmanship as the original Les Pauls were. They are truly a labor of love, no matter the price. They are the work of a true artisan.

Now I'm a Graphic Designer, so I'm eager to read your book--but seeing guitars mentioned on your blog was a perfect bridge between two of my own lives. Thanks for a good morning read!

Thanks to everyone who wrote in. I love all the notes you send, even though I can't always answer them.

On his excellent sports-and-technology blog, Nick Schulz, who helped me research the TFAIE chapter, writes about the "perfect profession," competitive video gaming. And Jesse Walker sends along this A.P. piece on the growing discipline of "ludology."

Ever yearn to study "Tetris" as a metaphor for American consumerism? Or write a paper on narrative structure in the horror action game "Silent Hill"? How about ponder "Grand Theft Auto III," infamous for its violent bent, as an examination of the human condition?

Too bad. Someone already has.

Rejecting the stigma that games are only for kids, researchers around the world are making computer games the subject of serious academic pursuit alongside literature, music and art. They are staking out space in universities--with Ph.D. programs, research centers and online journals.

Game studies (or "ludology," as it's known, from the Latin for "game"), has spawned a new class of academics who devote themselves to analyzing how the wildly popular form of entertainment tells stories--and what it reveals about how we express ourselves....

"If we were 25 years in the history of motion pictures and the only question that was being asked was whether or not they were violent, we would think they were missing some important questions," said Henry Jenkins, a leading game researcher and head of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology's Comparative Media Studies program.

When I worked at Borders in Plano several years ago, the manager removed all the chairs at one point. Too many people complained, so he brought some of them back. But every so often, he'd remove a couple more until we had almost none left. As you know, West Plano has no homeless problem, but his theory was that people bought more and bought faster if they couldn't sit down. I protested even then, but corporate management left it to the manager.

Now I live in Seattle--the downtown Borders hasn't had any chairs for years. B&N kept theirs. I've been loyal to Borders, and they unarguably have broader selection, but I find myself frequenting B&N more often lately...

I turned out to be wrong about the Westwood Borders. They do have a few of their hard wooden benches left. I even found one right under an electrical outlet. But the place isn't what it used to be. Writing from LA, Dilan Esper corrects my memory of the breastfeeding flap of a few years back:

A minor correction on the breastfeeding incident at Borders that you blogged about. It occurred in the children's section of the Glendale Borders, not the Westwood store. Here's the link.

(By the way, since it occurred in the children's section, it was probably on one of those uncomfortable "kiddie chairs" that are often in such sections, not a comfortable couch. But I can't prove that.)

Update: JohnEllis agrees. Bash the press all you like, but U.S. reporters do have standards. They may not always succeed, but they want the stories they print to be not just interesting but true. The British by contrast...

In her NYT report Gina Kolata notes that researchers Woo Suk Hwang and Shin Yong Moon of Seoul National University had 242 eggs to work with, an extraordinary number.

The abundance of eggs enabled the scientists to experiment with ways of having the egg cells start to divide and of growing the embryos in the laboratory.

"They had an incredible amount of eggs and an opportunity to perfect the protocols," said Dr. Jose B. Cibelli, formerly with Advanced Cell Technology and now a professor of animal biotechnology at Michigan State University. "They tried 14 different protocols."

For background on just how precious eggs are in this research, read Kyla Dunn's compelling June 2002 Atlantic article, "Cloning Trevor," which features Cibelli's research.

Cibelli is a co-author of the Science article and, according to Kolata, "consulted with the Koreans toward the end of their work." His role is particularly interesting, not just because he was a pioneer in the field but because he now lives and works in Michigan, one of the states that ban research cloning. When he left ACT for Michigan State in late 2002, the WSJ reported:

In a mission statement he provided the university, Dr. Cibelli wrote that "no human embryos will be created nor destroyed at MSU." However, professors are allowed to spend one day a week on outside activities, leaving open the possibility that Dr. Cibelli could continue his work on therapeutic cloning in another state. According to Dr. Cibelli, officials at Michigan State told him: "We're not going to ask what you do with 20% of your time."

As the MSNBC.com report notes, "The research is sure to revive international controversy over whether to ban all human cloning. Critics say it involves destroying a human embryo, however tiny, and is thus unethical. The administration of President Bush and supporters in Congress are seeking to outlaw the technology both in the United States and worldwide."

This international effort demonstrates the difficulty of blocking potentially life-saving research that some individuals--or cultures--find morally objectionable and others believe morally benign, or even required. If it doesn't happen in South Korea, it will happen in China and Israel. But bans like the one in Michigan will slow down progress toward actual cures.

Borders seems to be getting rid of the comfy chairs and places to sit in general in all of their stores. We live in Cobb County, Georgia (hardly an area with a huge homeless population) and the only place to sit is in the café (though they have left the benches in the periodicals section). Makes it kind of tough to check out a few chapters of a book you might be interested in buying. Maybe they've decided that they don't want to be the community gathering place anymore.

Reader Bruce McFadden is thankful for small favors:

I share your upset at the disappearing Border's comfy chairs. At least they let you plug in your laptop now (if you can find one of the approximately two outlets in the Cafe upstairs) -- they used to claim plugging in a laptop was a fire-hazard. When I asked when the last time was a laptop actually caught fire, they looked at me like I was a terrorist.

Here's the problem with the comfy chair revolution: It raises customers' expectations. The extreme case (so far as I know) is the woman who made a huge media fuss a few years ago because a clerk in the Westwood Borders told her not to breastfeed her baby in one of the comfy chairs. The store apologized, but I guess they don't have that problem any more.

POSITION AVAILABLE: The Foundation for Individual Rights in Education (FIRE) seeks a President. FIRE is a small, creative, exceptional, five-year-old and very well-regarded tax-exempt civil liberties organization, headquartered in Philadelphia. FIRE's mission is to protect, promote, and extend free speech, academic freedom, legal equality, due process, privacy, the rights of conscience, and, in general, liberty and individual rights on America's college and university campuses. FIRE's programs, activities, and significance are described on its website and its links to other FIRE sites at www.thefire.org. The President will have executive authority at FIRE, answerable to the Board of Directors. He or she will have responsibility for the strategic planning and implementation of FIRE's programs and for the expansion of its fundraising. The President will be FIRE's primary voice to donors, the public, the news media, and FIRE's allies. Applicants should be familiar with FIRE's work and be devoted to liberty. They preferably should have experience with not-for-profits, foundations, or the academic world. Candidates should be collegial, dynamic, well-organized, highly motivated, and principled. Salary will be commensurate with skills and experience. FIRE is an equal opportunity employer. Apply to:

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You can make a case that the headline is accurate, but it's a stretch. The story itself, which is reasonably good, is about the annual report of the Council of Economic Advisors, not some campaign speech by the president. While I'm sure the White House signed off on the report, Bush is not Greg Mankiw.

The movement of American factory jobs and white-collar work to other countries is part of a positive transformation that will enrich the U.S. economy over time, even if it causes short-term pain and dislocation, the Bush administration said Monday.

The embrace of foreign outsourcing, an accelerating trend that has contributed to U.S. job losses in recent years and has become an issue in the 2004 elections, is contained in the president's annual report to Congress on the health of the economy.

"Outsourcing is just a new way of doing international trade," said N. Gregory Mankiw, chairman of Bush's Council of Economic Advisors, which prepared the report. "More things are tradable than were tradable in the past. And that's a good thing."

More important than the election-year political bias is the subtle but extremely important difference between supporting "shift of jobs overseas" and supporting trade and specialization--the processes on which economic growth depends. Expanding the international division of labor doesn't shift "jobs" overseas. It shifts "some jobs" overseas, while creating new ones at home. The transition can be extremely painful for the workers affected, but the process itself is valuable. That's why government policies should address the specific problems of specific people, not attack the process as a whole.

With the rapid adoption of inexpensive broadband technology, and the cost of urban living still high despite the downturn, tech communities are popping up in unlikely places. Migratory entrepreneurs have set up shop in places as diverse as Grand Forks, North Dakota, Wenatchee, Washington, Bozeman, Montana, and Amherst, Massachusetts--scrapping the rat race and cutting back on their business costs, to boot. Many of these businesses are home-based and unincorporated, literally hidden from view and flying under the radar of government statisticians. Still, these "hidden tech" communites are getting VC attention.

Steve Reynolds, a senior manager at AOL, moved to Amherst from Maryland in the summer of 2002. He set up shop in his attic, where he has been managing a portion of AOL's marketing support operations. News coverage on the area's tech community convinced him there was a good cluster of like-minded techies to provide camaraderie off hours. Almost two years later, he's happy to be off the D.C. Beltway and is spending more time with his family and the outdoors. "Commuting took a lot of years off my life," he says.

Nearby is the office of Larry Jackson, a veteran Hollywood producer/director who spent 23 years as an executive with the Samuel Goldwyn Company, Orion, and Miramax, and was a senior producer for films such as Silence of the Lambs and Mystic Pizza. Mr. Jackson now operates a distribution company for independent films from a home office--he says he got tired of the Hollywood hustle and decided to try the simpler life. Mr. Jackson, who signs emails with "Lawrence of Cyberia," says the move required some initial adjustment, but he has settled into the slower pace. And the move, he adds, has been great for his kids.

Then there are David and Myra Kurkowski, who left the Philadelphia suburbs several years ago to operate a pharmaceutical market research business in Cape May, New Jersey, a resort town on the state shore famous for its beachfront attractions. What has surprised them, they say, is the proliferation of recent transplants. "All of our permanent staff are immigrants to Cape May, as are we," Mr. Kurkowski notes.

I personally don't see the appeal of the boondocks. But this is yet another suggestion--admittedly anecdotal--that the economy may be shifting toward work that doesn't get counted in the jobs data. I'll have more on that subject next week.

State Senate President Pro Tem John Burton, D-San Francisco, is expected to introduce a bill this week that would virtually prohibit foie gras by essentially putting the Western United States' sole producer out of business while denying chefs ready access to the hyper-fattened duck liver.

The idea is being viewed with alarm by high-end restaurants in California and across the nation that serve foie gras, a dish enjoyed by many who fancy haute cuisine.

I'm not a big foie gras fan, and I do think the way they feed the ducks is great, but this is the perfect sort of debate to leave to suasion. Californians are, after all, quite receptive to arguments that they shouldn't eat this or that.

We are still in the age of the in-box presidency. (It's amazing how well my editorial from four years ago still holds up.) As many people have noted, George W. Bush didn't run on a platform of activist foreign policy. World events, not personal plans, determined his priorities.

Of course, presidents do make a difference on policy--but not always the one you'd expect. If we'd had a Democratic president, the Republican Congress would probably have killed the expansion of Medicare. But with their man in office, enough conflicted Republicans went along with the program to give us a huge new entitlement with unknown, but predictable, consequences for government control of the pharmaceutical industry.

According to a monthly survey by the National Federation of Independent Business, member firms expanded their payrolls in each of the final three months of last year on average. That was the first time in three years the group's payroll figure grew for three straight months.

And an index of small business hiring plans rose to its highest level in 39 months, said William Dunkelberg, chief economist for the NFIB, which represents 600,000 businesses, the vast majority of which have fewer than 40 employees.

"We had a huge surge in the percent of firms planning to increase hiring," Dunkelberg said. "I think we've beaten everything we can out of the existing labor force."

The whole piece is worth reading.

The AP story linked above ends with some interesting statistics:

Massachusetts has one of the highest concentrations of gay households in the country with at 1.3 percent of the total number of coupled households, according to the 2000 census. In California, 1.4 percent of the coupled households are occupied by same-sex partners. Vermont and New York also registered at 1.3 percent, while in Washington, D.C., the rate is 5.1 percent.

That helps explain why DC conservatives, including the president, tend to squirm when their base demands condemnation of gay marriage and gays in general: If you work in Washington, you inevitably have gay friends, many of whom are de facto married.

I've thought the same thing after his every post - "what exactly is his position on this?".

BTW, I work in the IT industry as a web developer, and I'm not worried about outshoring. The companies I've worked for are far too disorganized to send development projects overseas. Communication is the number one problem in software development, and I don't see how that's going to be improved by outshoring.

And reader James M. Woolley writes, in a message titled "Are you completely nuts as well as ignorant":

The pathetic rants and raves on your web site are simply unbelievable - especially that silly remark about that simpleton piece in Wired Magazine - the lowbrow's rag!

There are only a finite number of jobs in the US economy - once a critical mass number have been offshored we enter the cascading unemployment phase - when those jobs dependent on the offshored jobs and industries likewise disappear.

I strongly suspect you never had - or passed - linear algebra or multivariable calculus.

No matter.

Simple arithmetic, coupled with an adequate mind, should be enough to comprehend the present trends. It is no coincidence it appears quite similar to 1929, as around 2005 the fewmets will really hit the fan!!!!!!

You, my dear, are simply another example of the "woman & minorities" program run amok.

He's right about the math. I took just a year of calculus. But you don't need multivariable calculus to know that the number of jobs isn't fixed, now or 10 or 50 or 100 years ago. Trade and specialization create new value, and new jobs, all the time. Here's a good explanation of the mathematics of economic growth from Paul Romer, who did take lots and lots of math. (Unlike Paul, however, I wouldn't point to the Japanese construction business as a model.) Ron Bailey interviewed Paul for Reason here.

[Update: Steve tells me I've been gone so long that I've forgotten how to blog and that I should have made these separate items. So I did.]