SECOND OPINION

Having spent the better part of a decade working with very creative tech execs, I have come to the simple conclusion that money often makes us stupid—and less creative. I believe that the real bursts of creativity are happening now—now that capital is so dear. Seems to me, the people who are not sitting on the sidelines waiting for recovery are now acting with incredible discipline and creativity to overcome the hurdles of today's economy. They are more actively addressing the needs of their customers—and they are more actively seeking ways to do more with less. Speaking as a customer myself, I have NEVER been treated so well.

By contrast, the plenitude of capital in the dotcom economy made us "stupid"—less creative relative to our available resources. Companies became self-absorbed as opposed to market-driven. They were creating things on the come instead of on-demand. They simply wanted to create stuff once and sell it many times instead of reaching out to a customer, building a relationship and then selling that customer many things, many times.

Now we see fewer self-styled visionaries. The VCs, who propped them up, have left the building. Nor do we see executives "checking out" after they have hit their IPO milestones—when they've gotten their "fuck you money," in other words.

Instead, I think the real creative missionaries come to life in down economies. They did in the late 80s/early 90s. They start to do the things we should have done all along. Take marketing. Instead of buying Super Bowl ads, for instance, they invest in cost-effective "guerilla-marketing" campaigns. In my opinion, it's more creative to do your marketing on a shoe-string than it is to hire some high-falutin' ad agency to create sock puppets.

No doubt, we had a burst of creative work during the dotcom boom—and much of it remains with us. The more relevant metric is how much creativity we get relative to a dollar invested in new companies, initiatives, products, services. By that measure, the dotcom economy was a bust—and, I believe, the present economy is actually far superior. I also believe we will see the flowers of this down-market creativity begin to bloom in the next 2-3 years. That's the stage the market cycle reaches its "optimal" state—somewhere between drought and decadence.

And if you don't want a change of pace from war, keep in mind that U.S. military superiority depends on a strong and technologically advanced economy. [Posted 3/23.]